Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
