Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
